Thursday, December 1 2022

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

Or should it be workers week? The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is underway in Beijing and all eyes are on President Xi Jinping ahead of the scheduled vote to give him an unprecedented third term. The FT spoke to more than two dozen Chinese business leaders, farmers, government officials and academics – although, naturally, none would be recorded – to give an overview of the country. as it enters this new era.

Back in the UK, representatives of British workers will gather in Brighton for the TUC’s annual congress, which was postponed due to the death of Queen Elizabeth II last month. Given the state of the economy and industrial unrest, there will be plenty to discuss. Pensions, the cost of living crisis and the defense of the right to strike are on the agenda.

Economic unrest will be on the agenda of the European Council meeting between EU heads of state, which begins Thursday in Brussels.

The fallout from the January 6, 2021 attack on Capitol Hill continues to make headlines across the United States. On Friday, Donald Trump’s former political adviser, Steve Bannon, is to be sentenced for contempt of Congress after failing to comply with a subpoena issued by the Commission of Inquiry into the bombing. He faces a fine of $100 to $100,000 as well as a minimum of 30 days and a maximum of one year in prison for each count.

Finally, among this week’s anniversaries is a significant one for a British institution as the BBC turns 100. Many people will have an opinion on this. Perhaps it’s time to revisit former FT editor Lionel Barber’s take on a century of ‘Auntie Beeb’.

What events concern you in the next seven days? You can contact me directly by sending a message to [email protected] Thanks.

Economic data

It’s going to be another tough week for economic data, but that’s the period we find ourselves in.

UK inflation figures for September are expected to see a further double-digit headline rate hike, while GfK’s confidence reading and retail sales update will likely underline just how drawn a recovery by consumers is unlikely at this time. Also, on Friday, S&P will review the UK’s credit rating of AA (currently with a negative outlook) as will Moody’s. Another Friday which should not be calm for the British press.

The Federal Reserve will release its latest Beige Book on Wednesday, providing commentary on current economic conditions in the United States, and there will be an update on the increasingly fragile US housing market.

China’s monthly activity indicators will most likely illustrate the continued impact of Covid-19 restrictions.

Companies

We are in the midst of earnings season, starting the week with the rest of the major Wall Street banks releasing third quarter numbers, followed by a mix of consumer goods, retail, media, airlines and technology.

Higher costs are hitting online retailers. Naked Wineswhich reports Intermediates on Monday, shocked markets last month by reporting a shift in strategy towards profitability. asos will present its annual results on Friday, the first under chief executive José Antonio Ramos Calamonte, but has already warned that these will be at the bottom of expectations due to the reduction in consumer spending.

Investors in a UK residential home builder Bell will look ahead given concerns over the impact of rising borrowing costs on the UK property market. The order book stood at £2.1bn in August, but more recent trading trends and levels of sales interest will be key, alongside any signs of stress in the mortgage market.

Main economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more comprehensive list of what to expect in terms of corporate reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • New Zealand, third quarter consumer price index inflation data

  • UK, a government consultation on a new legal framework for defined benefit pension schemes, including a set of rules for funding and investment strategies, ends today. The government wants schemes to reduce investment risk.

  • Results: Bank of America Q3, Bank of New York Mellon Q3, Charles Schwab Q3, Naked Wines H1, Rio Tinto Third Quarter Operations Update

Tuesday

  • China, monthly GDP, retail sales and industrial production figures

  • Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey

  • U.S. September industrial production numbers plus NAHB housing market index

  • Results: Bell AF, BP Marsh & Partners H1, Goldman Sachs Q3, Hasbro Q3, Johnson & Johnson Q3, Lockheed Martin Q3, Money supermarket Q3 trade report, netflix Q3, Omnicom Q3, Publicis Group Q3 sales, rock Q3, Signature Bank Q3, State Street Q3

Wednesday

  • Canada, September CPI figures

  • EU, September HICP inflation data

  • UK, September CPI, Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Price Index (RPI) inflation rate data

  • In the United States, the Federal Reserve publishes its beige book summarizing economic conditions

  • Results: America Movil Q3, ASML Q3, asos AF, Deutsche Borse Q3, Hargreaves Lansdown Q1 Commercial Update, IBM Q3, Just eat take out Q3 trade update, lion trust S1 Commercial Update, group of men Q3 trade update, Nestle Q3, Procter & Gamble Q3, Rathbones Group Q3, You’re here Q3, Travelers Q3, United Airlines Q3

Thursday

  • Canada, monthly retail sales figures

  • France, October business survey

  • Germany, September PPI inflation rate data

  • Japan, September trade balance figures

  • U.S. Existing Home Sales and Unemployment Claims Data

  • Results: ABB Q3, A.Bell Financial Year Business Update, Akzo Nobel Q3, American airlines Q3, AT&T Q3, Bunzl Q3 trade update, centamine Q3, dunelm Q1 Commercial Update, UK Group S1 Commercial Update, Jupiter Fund Management Q3 trade update, Marsh and McLennan Q3, National Express business update, nokia Q3, Pernod Ricard Q1, Philip Morris Q3, Schröders Q3 trade update, Travis Perkins Q3 trade update, Union Pacific Q3, Vivendi Q3

Friday

  • EU, consumer confidence figures

  • Hong Kong, September CPI inflation rate data

  • Japan, September CPI inflation data

  • UK, GfK consumer confidence survey, September public sector net borrowing and September retail sales figures. Citi/YouGov public survey on inflation expectations. Additionally, S&P will revise the UK’s credit rating to AA (negative outlook); Moody’s will review the UK’s credit rating.

  • Results: American Express Q3, Deliveroo Q3 trade update, IHG Q3 trade update, London Stock Exchange Q3 revenue update, Schlumberger Q3, Sika Q3, Verizon Communications Q3, Tourbillon Q3, Wickes Third Quarter Business Update

Global Events

Finally, here’s a look at some of the other events and milestones from this week.

Monday

  • France, President Emmanuel Macron opens the Paris Motor Show

  • Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz welcomes King Felipe of Spain and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier hosts a State dinner for the Royal Family during their official visit

  • Luxembourg, meeting of EU foreign ministers to discuss the war in Ukraine, EU relations with China and the upcoming UN climate change conference COP27

  • Spain, start of the trial of football clubs Barcelona and Santos and footballer Neymar for fraud and corruption during the transfer of the Brazilian striker to Barça in 2013

  • UK, winner of the Booker Prize, the top prize for English-language fiction, will be announced at a ceremony in London

Tuesday

  • Azerbaijan Independence Restoration Day National Day

  • Qatar, official opening of the Al-Kharsaah solar power plant, a key part of the country’s ambition to host the first net zero soccer World Cup later this year

  • UK, rescheduled TUC Congress rally for union members begins in Brighton. Pensions, the cost of living crisis and the defense of the right to strike are among the items on the agenda.

  • United Kingdom, centenary of the founding of the British Broadcasting Corporation

Wednesday

  • Thailand and finance ministers of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) countries begin three-day meeting in Bangkok

Thursday

  • Belgium, the European Council meeting between EU heads of state begins in Brussels with the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and the economy on the agenda.

Friday

  • In the United States, Steve Bannon, a key associate of former President Donald Trump, will be held in contempt of Congress for defying a subpoena from the committee investigating last year’s attack on the US capitol

Saturday

  • New Zealand, draw to decide the group stage matches of the ninth Women’s World Cup, which begins in July 2023 at venues in Australia and New Zealand

Sunday

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