Thursday, December 1 2022

Week 3 of the college football season is on the books and things have started to calm down. The Week 2 slate was full of upsets, but the last week was particularly smoother as the big favorites took care of business.

We are now entering the middle of the season where these metrics will start to stabilize and mean a lot more.

This breakdown looks at three metrics that have proven relevant to covering the gap:

  1. Ravaged
  2. Success rate
  3. Finishing workouts

If you want to know why these measures were chosen, check out this article by Collin Wilson. To quote his findings:

“Data from the past five years indicates that defensive hit rate, havoc and finishing drives are the primary metrics for beating oddsmakers this college football season.”

Let’s dive in and see where we can find an edge in week 4.


Ravaged

What is Havoc?

Ravaged is a college football term defined as a game where there is an unexpected outcome.

Pass breakups, forced fumbles and tackles for loss are just a few of the plays that cause chaos on any given Saturday. Collectively, these games are used to build an identity for a team.

The calculation for Havoc is simply a cumulative number of tackles for loss, interceptions, fumbles and passes defended divided by the number of plays on both sides of the ball.

Let’s see where we can find big Havoc gaps in week 4:


Home Team Havoc Allowed vs. Away Team Havoc Rate


Top 3 Havoc mismatches (home attack vs away defence)

  1. Washington Huskies attack on Stanford Cardinal Defense
  2. Defense of the Arkansas State Red Wolves against the Dominion Former Monarchs Offensive
  3. Tennessee Volunteers attack against Florida Gators defense

Away Team Havoc Allowed vs. Home Team Havoc Rate

Top 3 Havoc Mismatches (Away Attack vs. Home Defence)

  1. Air Force Falcons Defense vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Offense
  2. UCF Knights Defense vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Offense
  3. Syracuse Orange Defense vs. Virginia Cavaliers Offense

Success rate

What is the success rate?

Success rate is an advanced metric in football that measures efficiency, but with the important context of down and distance taken into account.

A game is defined as successful if:

  • He gains at least 50% of the yards needed to move the chains on the first down
  • 70% yards to gain on second down
  • 100% yards to gain on third or fourth down

To calculate the success rate, simply divide the number of successful plays (as defined by low and distance above) by the total number of plays.

This definition is taken from our article on success rate.


Home team’s offensive success rate vs. away team’s defensive success rate

Top 3 success rate spreads (home attack vs away defence)

  1. Boise State Broncos Defense of UTEP Minor Offense
  2. Utah Utes Defense vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Offense
  3. Tennessee Volunteers attack against Florida Gators defense

Visiting team’s offensive success rate vs. home team’s defensive success rate

Top 3 success rate spreads (away attack vs. home defence)

  1. UCLA Bruins Offense vs. Colorado Buffaloes Defense
  2. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Defense vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Offense
  3. Tulane Green Wave Defense vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles Offense

Finishing workouts

What are Finishing Drives?

Finishing workouts is calculated in points per opportunity when the attack crosses the opponent’s 40-yard line.

Defensively, it is the number of points per opportunity that a defense allows when the opposing attack crosses the line of 40 meters.


Home Team Offensive Finishing Strikes vs Away Team Defensive Finishing Strikes

Top 3 finishing command mismatches (home attack vs away defence)

  1. Georgia Southern Eagles Offense vs. Ball State Cardinals Defense
  2. Defending UNLV Rebels Against Utah State Aggies Offense
  3. Marshall Thundering Herd Defense vs. Troy Trojans Offense

Away Team Offensive Finishing Strikes vs. Home Team Defensive Finishing Strikes

Top 3 Finishing Order Mismatches (Away Attack vs. Home Defence)

  1. Syracuse Orange Defense vs. Virginia Cavaliers Offense
  2. Defending the Eastern Carolina Pirates from the Midshipmen Attack
  3. James Madison Attack on Appalachian State Mountaineers Defense

College Football Week 4 Paris Takeaway

Now that we’re done with all the graphics, let’s earn MONEY!

The recommendations in this column have gone to 1-0-1 in previous weeks – the push coming via absurd overtime play.

The game that stands out the most this week is the College Gameday Saturday destination: Florida vs. Tennessee in Knoxville, TN.

Let’s take a look at this correspondence:


Yes, I realize our projections make Tennessee a favorite by just 5 points, and the books make Tennessee -10.5 as of Friday night.

And you know what? It’s okay with me. Projections are meant to be guidelines – not the end of everything, the be all and end all of your decision making.

What stands out for me is How many offsets Tennessee has on offense to complement the Vols’ aptitude in defensive finishing drives.

I’m a little torn between the spread and the Tennessee team total, but the advantage goes to the team total. I expect Tennessee to move the ball up and down the field with relative ease. With Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson under center, I’m not entirely comfortable betting on the spread.

Take: Tennessee Team Total Over 36.5 (-130) ⋅ Betting over 37.5 (-110)

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